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Note on Posting a Comment: If your comment warrants a response and you wish it sent privately, please provide an e-mail address. Otherwise I will comment on your comment and it will be public.Three Main Takeaways from the SIC 2017
- Economic Power Shifts from West to East: India and China’s share of world GDP has increased six-fold since 1970. Meanwhile, the G7 nations share of global trade has declined from 50% to 30%. This shift in economic power presents one of the greatest investment opportunities in history… and also carries many risks.
- Demographics Are Destiny: Populations in the West are aging rapidly. In the US alone, 10,000 people turn 65 every day… and will do so for the next dozen years. An aging population means less economic activity, which has profound implications for your portfolio.
- The Coming Technological Revolution Will Change the World: Over one-third of US jobs are expected to be automated over the next decade. But automation and advances in technology aren’t just affecting manufacturing workers—they will impact your future investment success.
Source: Mauldin Economics
James Drogan
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Things That Make You Go Hhhhhmmmmm
“Look, here is what this cool program tells us your portfolio should look like. It’s all in the math, and that’s why you can trust it.”
Mauldin, J. (2017, May 27). The Great Reset, Part Two.
Implications of the Emerging Data Economy
From The Emerging Data Economy:
All these data is enabling us to better understand the world’s physical, economic and social infrastructures, as well as to infuse information-based intelligence into every aspect of their operations. It’s making it possible to not just better understand what’s happening in the present, but to also make more accurate predictions about what might happen in the future. Beyond its use in improving the operational efficiency and financial performance of companies, the data can now be applied to significantly improve customer relationships, as well as to create whole new classes of smart products and services.
Who is "us?" How evenly will the benefits of the emerging data economy be distributed amongst the socio-economic-political classes?
"We have met the enemy and he is us." Pogo
"My own sense is that the answer to 'why has it taken so long' goes beyond technology. In the first decade of the 20th century, many firms in the physical economy were often focused on how to cut costs by outsourcing or setting up global production chains, The leading providers in industries like health care and education seem exceptionally set in their traditional ways, with practices are hard for either internal executives or external entrepreneurs to uproot."
Digital Forces and the Other 70% of the US Economy, CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST, Apr 28, 2017
From the Frontline
"Despite the fact that I loathe group work, this capstone pushes us to ensure that the team comes first. Our success or failure comes from our ability to make the team, beyond our selves, the priority. As a unit we collaborate to ensure that the team has what is required to see the mission through to completion."
Energy and Productivity
Technology and Work
"The problem is that at least 80% of manufacturing jobs were lost not to companies moving factories to China or Mexico but to increased automation. Some estimates run as high as 90%. Those jobs are never “coming back.” They are gone. And that trend is going to continue and accelerate. I fully understand that if we do get corporate tax reform, along with some other reforms, it is quite possible that Apple, for example, would move its iPhone 10 factory to the US. But iPhones are increasingly assembled by robots, and in a few years those and other such products will mostly be made on largely automated production lines, whether in China or the US.
That said, if Foxconn does set up a flat-screen display factory in the US, it would create 30,000+ jobs. Of course, they are asking for US government help and subsidies. Note that Apple has 766 suppliers, of which just 69 are in the US. Manufacturing iPhones in the US would be more about the logistics of getting just-in-time components from those other 700 suppliers, which are all over the world. The additional cost for US-based labor would not be all that much.
And that situation is playing out over hundreds of industries. Much of what we buy today is absolutely reliant on a complex, seamlessly functioning global supply chain. Did you know that an Apple iPhone contains about 75 elements, as in periodic table elements? There is iron, aluminum, carbon, and silicon, of course, but also a host of exotics. Most of those aren’t mined or refined in the United States."
Schools and universities will have to do more to educate students to be better consumers of information.
Things That Make You Go Hhhhhmmmmm
The title was likely inspired by John Mauldin.
"Imitation is a stronger force in cultures than innovation. Everything goes more easily if we imitate rather than innovate – so we buy our clothes at the same department stores and eat out at the same chain restaurants. And when we imitate people – wearing their jerseys, singing their music, repeating their ideas – we are doing what most cultures do, copying people with prestige and status. For example, reporters rarely innovate when covering science, that is, they rarely come to their own opinion about difficult material. Rather, they establish a set of ‘go-to’ experts to cite. And those sets are populated largely by Ivy-league professors. There is nothing wrong with that. I simply point out that it is common. It saves one from the excruciating work of original thought."
Emphasis added.
Source: Everett, D. (2017, January 10). Why Language is Not Everything that Noam Chomsky Said It Is. Retrieved January 14, 2017, from https://aeon.co/essays/why-language-is-not-everything-that-noam-chomsky-said-it-is