James Drogan

In Forces and Managing the Business I try to take a look ahead at the issues the business may face and how they might deal with these issues.  I am not forecasting or predicting, but rather trying to lay out plausible alternative futures to think about as a precursor to acting in the event one of these alternatives develops.  The idea here is to get on and off the value curve at the right times.

To the left is an abstract of the value curve.

The initial idea develops and then, a point A, it takes off, contributing value that may grow at an exponential rate.  iTunes and iPhone are great examples of this.

A point B the growth of value begins to decline.  Of course there is more value that will be added past point B, just as value existed before point A.  However, arrival at point B might suggest that we execute an exit strategy and jump on the next wave of value.

This indicates to me that we should understand the fundamental trends that affect our operations, develop some notion of points A and B, and have plans in place for dealing with the these two "turnings."

We may or may not want to be the first on the value wave (i.e., at t = 0 and v = 0), but we ought not to wait until after A.  We don't want to leave money on the table.

And we may or may not want to be the last off the value wave, but we ought not wait beyond B to move to the next big thing.

This is not absolute advice.  The abstraction posited above must be considered in light of the facts on the ground and the elements of the business configuration.

The above is prelude to suggesting that one ought to develop a discipline for thinking about the future.  A start on this can be had by reviewing Futures Thinking: The Basics from FastCompany.

Those of you with whom I have had career discussions will note some similarity to the construct of role, responsibilities, risks, and rewards.