James Drogan

"But first, I’m going to reach out and ask for a little help. I have just signed an agreement with my publisher, Wiley, to do a new book called Investing in an Age of Transformation. I’ve been thinking about this book for many years, and it is finally time to write it. As my longtime readers know, I believe we are entering a period of increasingly profound change, much more transformative than we’ve seen in the past 50 years. And not just technologically but on numerous fronts. There are going to be substantial social implications as well. Imagine the entire 20th century fast-forwarded and packed into 20 years, and you will get some idea of the immensity of what we face.

Now think about investing in this unfolding era of change. Companies will spring up and disappear faster than ever. Corporations will move into and out of indexes at an increasingly rapid rate, making the whole experience of index investing – which constitutes the bulk of investing, not just for individuals but for pensions and large institutions – obsolete.

Just as we wouldn’t think of relying on the medical technology of the early 20th century, I’m convinced that we need a significantly new process for investing that doesn’t depend on the concept of indexing created deep in the last century. In an age of exponential change, being wrong in your investment style will no longer mean you simply underperform: you will not merely be wrong; you will be exponentially wrong.

Of course, the flipside is that if you get it right, you will be exponentially right. We will be exploring some new investing concepts in Thoughts from the Frontline as I write the book, since this letter is actually part of my thinking process. I’ve been spending a great deal of time lately exploring new ways of thinking about the markets, different ways to manage risk, and strategies to take advantage of overwhelming change.

This project will be significantly more complex than any book I’ve attempted so far. I’m looking for a few research interns or assistants to help me on various topics. Some topics are technological in nature, and some are investment-oriented. You can be young or old, retired or working in any number of fields; you just have to be passionate about thinking about the future and be able to spend time exploring a topic and going back and forth with me through shared notes and conversations. It’s a plus if you write well. If you are interested in exploring a topic or two, drop me a note at transformation@2000wave.com, along with a resume or a note about your background, plus your area of interest. Now let’s jump to the letter."  Mauldin, J. (2015, July 25). Europe: Running on Borrowed Time.

This item, from GeekWire, points out the power of the counterfactual.

Those of you who have taken Logistics in the Supply Chain with me will recall (I hope) the assigned text, Logistics and Supply Chain Management: Creating Value-added Networks, by Martin Christopher.  I assigned this text partially for what it didn't say about the topic.  You were challenged to discover what was not there.

There is great value in determining what's missing.

"If stated reasons don't sit well with your conscience or stand the test of logic, look for deeper motivations." Docent Glax Othn in Brian Herbert and Kevin J. Anderson, Dune: The Butlerian Jihad, 1st Edition ed. (Tor Books, 2002) 0-765-30157-1.

...that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it.”

Mark Weiser in Rus, D. (2015). The Robots are Coming. Foreign Affairs, 94(4), 2–6.