I've a bit of time off over Thanksgiving and will start the second seminar, Economic and the International System, on December 7.

To my students, prepare for a new and interesting point of view.

I've come across a video and a podcast over the last several days that bear directly on critical thinking.  The  discussions below below concern accuracy, precision, assumptions, bias, and allowance for the unknown, all factors that tend to bedevil critical thinking.

In the first, the McKinsey Quarterly talks "with Kenneth Knight,  the national intelligence officer for warning for the United States. Knight shares lessons learned from a career spent analyzing and preparing for the unknown.  He spoke with the Quarterly in June 2009. We began our interview by asking if the task of understanding threats has become more complex."  The video of this, courtesy of The McKinsey Quarterly, can be found here.

The second podcast comes from Bloomberg. "Michael Mauboussin, chief investment strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management, talks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about his book 'Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition.'''  The podcast of this, courtesy of Bloomberg, can be found here.

I posit, and Bob seems to confirm, that

Intuition = f(Wisdom + Facts).

The complete article is here.  Courtesy of Fast Company.

John Mauldin, October 9, 2009

This morning I cam across this elegant (i.e., as in simple, powerful) graphic, the Economic Recovery Dashboard, from Russell Investments.  Be sure to "mouse over" (what a phrase) the various elements in the graphic.

To the left is an abstract of the value curve.

The initial idea develops and then, a point A, it takes off, contributing value that may grow at an exponential rate.  iTunes and iPhone are great examples of this.

A point B the growth of value begins to decline.  Of course there is more value that will be added past point B, just as value existed before point A.  However, arrival at point B might suggest that we execute an exit strategy and jump on the next wave of value.

This indicates to me that we should understand the fundamental trends that affect our operations, develop some notion of points A and B, and have plans in place for dealing with the these two "turnings."

We may or may not want to be the first on the value wave (i.e., at t = 0 and v = 0), but we ought not to wait until after A.  We don't want to leave money on the table.

And we may or may not want to be the last off the value wave, but we ought not wait beyond B to move to the next big thing.

This is not absolute advice.  The abstraction posited above must be considered in light of the facts on the ground and the elements of the business configuration.

The above is prelude to suggesting that one ought to develop a discipline for thinking about the future.  A start on this can be had by reviewing Futures Thinking: The Basics from FastCompany.

Those of you with whom I have had career discussions will note some similarity to the construct of role, responsibilities, risks, and rewards.

The abstract for this item is

"Time is a finite resource, but energy can be systematically expanded and renewed. Schwartz and McCarthy of the Energy Project describe how to establish rituals that will build energy in four key dimensions: the body, emotions, mind, and spirit. For instance, harnessing the body's ultradian rhythms by taking intermittent breaks restores physical energy. Rejecting the role of a victim and instead viewing events through three hopeful lenses defuses energy-draining negative emotions. Avoiding the constant distractions that technology has introduced increases mental energy. And participating in activities that give you a sense of meaning and purpose boosts the energy of the spirit. The new workday rituals succeed only if leaders support their adoption, but when that happens, the results can be powerful: individuals respond by bringing all their energy wholeheartedly to work--and both companies and their people grow in value."

This is an article in "Managing Yourself" (HBR Article Collection)" by Tony Schwartz, Catherine McCarthy, Stewart D. Friedman, Donald N. Sull, Dominic Houlder,Peter F. Drucker, 50 pages. Publication date: Apr 01, 2008. Prod. #: 10097-PDF-ENG

Source: Harvard Business Publishing, September 10, 2009

Mythology distracts us everywhere--in government as in business, in politics as in economics, in foreign affairs as in domestic affairs. But today I want to particularly consider the myth and reality in our national economy. In recent months many have come to feel, as I do, that the dialog between the parties--between business and government, between the government and the public--is clogged by illusion and platitude and fails to reflect the true realities of contemporary American society.

Commencement Address at Yale University

President John F. Kennedy
June 11, 1962