James Drogan

This blog, for a number of reasons, has been inactive for some time.  I intend to correct beginning with this post.

I am now retired and continue to be interested in supply chains, global affairs, technology driven change, cultural change,

A more complete dossier may be found at About Me on this site. 

jim 8/4/23 

This article (Wolf, M. (2022, May 31). Twelve Propositions on the State of the World. Financial Times) merits your attention especially if you are at the beginning of your business and/or political career.

Wolf identifies significant exogenous forces with which the world will neeed to contend.

Jim

...., and the good ones among them are the first to admit it—because their own professional disciplines are based not on some ideal of perfect knowledge and competence but on a constant process of identifying errors and correcting them, which ultimately drives intellectual progress. Yet these days, members of the public search for expert errors and revel in finding them—not to improve understanding but rather to give themselves license to disregard all expert advice they don’t like.

We ought, from time to time, examine our assumptions.

Jonathan Brantt advises us to do just that in  Reframing the Revolution. (2021, June 24). Hybrid Pedagogy. https://hybridpedagogy.org/reframing-the-revolution/

Pertinet Parts

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AI is already superior to humans in a number of tasks, but the future of work isn’t a zero-sum game in which there can only be one winner. “The question of whether AI will replace human workers assumes that AI and humans have the same qualities and abilities - but, in reality, they don’t,” noted De Cremer and Kasparov. “AI-based machines are fast, more accurate, and consistently rational, but they aren’t intuitive, emotional, or culturally sensitive. And, it’s exactly these abilities that humans posses and which make us effective.”

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Experience with advanced chess tournaments has shown that the strength of the human players, - whether grandmasters or amateurs, - is not what determines the winning team. Rather, it’s the quality of the partnership that matters, that is, the process of how players and computers interact. As Kasparov succinctly put it “Weak human + machine + better process was superior to a strong computer alone and, more remarkably, superior to a strong human + machine + inferior process.”

“The enhancing and collaborative potential that we envision stands in stark contrast to the zero-sum predictions of what AI will do to our society and organizations,” wrote the authors in conclusion. “Instead, we believe that greater productivity and the automation of cognitively routine work is a boon, not a threat. After all, new technology always has disruptive effects early on in the implementation and development phases and usually reveals its real value only after some time.”

The Three Types of AI: Artificial, Authentic, and Augmented Intelligence. (n.d.). Irving Wladawsky-Berger. Retrieved July 17, 2021, from https://blog.irvingwb.com/blog/2021/07/human-machine-augmented-intelligence.html

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) is risking jobs creating shortage of competencies like creativity, imagination, innovation, adaptability, and cognitive skills.

Pandya, D. B. (n.d.). A Competency Framework for Virtual Hr Professionals in an Artificial Intelligence Age. Mokslinės Leidybos Deimantas - Diamond Scientific Publication.

My attitude about asking good questions is summed up in this graphic.

In this regard, your attention is called to How do you ask good questions? by Tyler Cowen.

AI: Questions has been updated.

All civilizations face their fragilities.  Many residents of the world’s wealthiest nations, particularly Americans, have felt fortunate to live through a period largely insulated from shocks and disruptions.  This “vacation from history” enabled many to become accustomed to living at the efficient-but-fragile end of the robust-yet-fragile continuum.  In a world temporarily devoid of consequences, the slow erosion and increasing inelasticity of the country’s political, financial, socioeconomic, and ecological systems scarcely seemed to matter.  Now that a new, more volatile chapter has begun, those now-compromised systems have flipped from being engine of resilience to sources of fragility themselves.

Zolli, A., & Healy, A. M. (2012). Resilience: Why Things Bounce Back (1st Free Press hardcover ed). Free Press. p. 261